Poll Musings
September 13, 2007 by Jet
I read a poll this morning at the American Research Group site, and I started thinking about data in general and people in particular. For example, who has land lines at home? Well, lots of people, but not as many as used to. I know quite a few families at my kid’s school who have no land lines; their families all keep in touch by cell phone. Polls don’t call cell phones, as a rule. (I think there’s some rule in place that make it hard for solicitors to waste your minutes.) Lower income folks tend to have cells over land lines, or they go without completely. Cells are more convenient, Go-Phones are cheap, and if you more around, your number goes with you. Seniors have land lines. They stay at home more, and need to be able to call for assistance. I’m not saying that seniors don’t have cell phones, many do, but a significant number of seniors, especially those who are homebound, do not.
Some pollsters, like Zogby, solicit opinion via the internet. I occasionally get tapped for a Zogby poll. I’d like to say that that’s the more reliable poll, but really, it’s as flawed as land line polling, because the number of seniors tapped is not in proportion to the number of seniors voting.
Then there’s the question of phrasing, which is a minefield in poll reliability, since typically EVERYBODY has an agenda. I mean, I don’t think I could parse questions that were completely unbiased, since the baseline I’m drawing from reflects my innate perceptions of society, government, and an individual’s responsibilities within that framework.
Take this question: Do you think the government should help the poor? For one thing, it’s too broad. Which poor? All of them? Some of them? Who chooses? A yes or a no to such a broad statement tells the pollster nothing really, and it actually acts as a dividing force to a conservative or liberal, who, if the question was parsed this way: Do you think the government has a role in caring for people unable to care for themselves? might have a far different reaction from either group.
When I see a poll that says Hillary has the nomination locked up, I wonder, with whom? Indiana seniors and stay-at-home moms? With internet users across 16 states? It’s bolstering to the Hillary camp, but out here in real America, where busy people work and raise families and care for elderly parents and eye their retirements, does it really tell the whole story?
I think not.
Obama has raised some real cash from individuals. At this juncture, I take more stock in that than any poll, because when a citizen makes a $20 campaign donation, that’s 4 gallons of milk or half a tank of gas. This is not excess company profit that can be written off as R&D or some such nonsense, it’s a doctor co-pay or fresh fruit for a week. It’s not jaded, it’s hopeful. Because of that, it carries more weight with me. Edwards is raising cash from regular folks too, albeit not as much as Obama. Count these campaigns out at your peril. There is a lot of non-polled America out there who are digging deep for these two. Plus, when you give your hard earned cash to support an ideal, you tend to go vote.
Democrats have a pretty clear choice this primary. Old school, questionable source, corporate funded Hillary, or citizen fueled choices that feel like a departure from the past 30 years. I’ve been there (literally, I’ve been a registered Dem since 1980) and done that. I’m looking for representation which sees me as something beyond a stepping stone. I want somebody who sees national pride as a team effort – a team of millions. There are a lot of voters who feel the same way.
Despite what the “polls” say, I don’t think Hillary can deliver.
Great post. Cell phones don’t work very well in Vermont, or I’d probably get one again. Then I wouldn’t have to answer polls or probably telemarketers.
Your comments on campaign contributions are the best I’ve read.
appreciate the discussion of the topic. i am resentful of the manner in which poll results and the media’s choice to focus on only the top 3 actually limits our decision making.
it would be so wonderful if we could be informed about the candidates in the manner the League of Women Voters used to (do they still?) inform us, only with nationwide coverage.
i am resentful, too, at being spoonfed choices by virtue of having the talking heads on cable news opine on the virtues of this candidate or that one.
example: hillary clinton’s connections to criminal fundraiser Hsu are bandied about the news as if clinton was in bed with him from start to finish. it’s not true, and other candidates also received funds from him. but there is NO mention of mitt romney’s chief fundraiser facing charges for all sorts of reasons. it is a bias against democrats and for republicans which lets them off the hook and enforces negative perceptions of dems.
i almost wish there were no polls. i believe they influence people far more than we think. for example, i’ve heard a number of people who were gung ho on the next election discussing how they are losing heart because they’re candidate’s not winning. well it’s not fucking over yet, though the talking heads would make us believe so.
in a perfect world, i would hope my dark horse dennis would surge into the lead. he is as near perfect a progressive candidate as it’s possible to find unless the love of my political life, al gore, should choose to enter the race.
my candidate of the moment is edwards, but i’ve been pro obama and pro clinton at various times. bottom line, i will vote for the democrat who wins the primary. there has never been a more urgent need for a change of party in the white house and there is NOTHING that would cause me not to vote or to vote for a rethug. nothing. i’ve voted in every election since i became eligible in 1976. that is, i think, critical for all of us to do. there is no democratic candidate who could equal the destructive power of a continuation of the republican oligarchy. barring violent overthrow of the king and his minions, the vote is all we have. it remains to be seen whether the voting irregularities that have plagued the last two presidential elections will impact this one.
i have a land line
i hang up on pollsters.
I hate to say it but I do not like these polls because they never ask the right questions. They really are worthless because they are set up to make things appear a certain way.
If they asked the right questions and what the people thought was ACTED ON THAT WOULD BE DIFFERENT.
Anyway I think I think they are wrong about Hillary and I think Edwards and even Obama will be the nominee. Obama is young but I think he is pretty good. It’s amazing what Oprah and 1.5 Billion will do for you too.
I still think though that Gore is the only person capable of picking up after Bush!
Damn, I enjoyed this Post Jet! I have mixed feelings about polls and frankly don’t hold a lot of stock in most of them.
Unless I am writing for BIO and poking the rightwingers over there