Obama gaining ground in West-by-god-Virginia?

According to MSNBC’s Chuck Todd, he sure is! From Chuck’s column:

Three weeks until Election Day, Obama now holds a more than 100-vote lead in NBC’s latest electoral map. He’s ahead of McCain 264-163, with 111 votes in the Toss-up column. Last week, Obama was up 264-174. Our changes: We moved Missouri from Lean McCain to Toss-up; Oregon and Washington from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and West Virginia from Likely McCain to Lean McCain. Something’s happening in West Virginia — yes, West Virginia — because of the economic angst. Obama’s been buying a bunch of TV time in markets that bleed into West Virginia, and the numbers have been closing for a time. By the way, political analyst Charlie Cook is moving West Virginia all the way to Toss-up. If that state is on the move, could Arkansas be far behind? Both are states that can show Democratic movement in a bad economic environment.  

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Ground Zero for 2008

MSNBC put up their list of the current “likely scenario” for the electoral map.

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)

I’m not going to get into their premise that by adding the Base and Lean numbers for each candidate they are a tie and of equal strength, which I don’t buy for a New York minute, and once you factor in who has what money and fundraising potential, becomes even more ludicrous.

Instead, I’m going to reach out in a conciliatory way to CO, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, and WI (I’m in FL) and say, gee guys, fall is going to suck with the ad blitzes. The second tier of blitz is ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, and ND - because “Lean” is not bagged, and until it is, you’re going to get mauled too.

Which takes me back to my above point. 26 of 50 states are in play this election. That’s going to take monster bucks. From The Politico:

• If each of Obama’s donors gave him a modest $250, he’d have $375 million to spend during the two-month general election sprint. That’s $186 million a month, $47 million a week.
• During the same September to Nov. 4 period, McCain will have about $85 million to spend since he has decided to take taxpayer money to help finance his campaign activities.
• The Republican National Committee, which is charged with closing the gap between McCain and Obama, has $40 million in cash. Obama raised almost as much - $31 million - from just his small donors in the month of February. His total for the month, $57 million, exceeded the RNC’s cash balance.
• Obama has more than 1.5 million donors; McCain has a few hundred thousand. If just a million of Obama’s donors sent him the maximum donation, $2,300, he could raise $2.3 billion.

Granted, that last one is an outlier. Nevertheless, this is a recipe for low budget muck raking ad buys from McCain. He doesn’t have the jack to run positive. Obama has enough jack, george, jill, bob and donna to do whatever needs to be done, and the cojones to call McCain on the muck. By November the Republican implosion will be complete, with 26 states completely sick of McCain and the Rep’s BS. Further, Obama will probably be able to afford to run positive ads in McCain’s base states, which will give the down tickets more traction there. (50 State strategy rocks our world!)

I am LOVING the rise of the Democratic phoenix. Burn, baby, burn.

Crossposted at Bring it On!

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